As noted by James Barham here (“Six Lessons on Scientific Heresy,” BestSchools.org November 4, 2011:
“When are scientific heretics right and when are they mad? How do you tell the difference between science and pseudoscience?”
This was the theme of the annual Angus Millar Lecture, entitled “Scientific Heresy,” delivered by noted popular-science author Matt Ridley earlier this week at the Royal Scottish Academy in Edinburgh.
Finally, he refers to studies which have shown that experts such as political scientists, economists, and journalists have no better than chance success at predicting future outcomes. Again, the list might well be extended to include evolutionary biologists, climatologists, medical experts, and others.
Not that Ridley necessarily would include thm.
Lesson number 6: Never rely on the consensus of experts about the future. . . . Futurology is pseudoscience.
Past-ology is often pseudoscience too, actually. Cf pronouncements on human evolution
The really interesting study would be the one that explains how people who do succeed in prediction make their decisions.