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Newswatch — tracking the Ukraine crisis in light of the shadows of 1938 . . .

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Preliminary thoughts are here, I  have a very queasy feeling in my tummy over this one.

For historical context, here is Wiki’s summary of developments coming out of the 1938 “Peace in our time” crisis of 1938, which began with German agitation over the claimed plight of the Sudeten Germans living under Czech rule — which turned out to be a first major international use of the turnabout accusation, blame the targetted victim agitprop tactic:

munich_1938

Parallels to the unfolding situation in the Ukraine include Poland as neighbour, with the former East Prussia now a Russian province and enclave (though this time, Poland is a member in good standing of NATO). Airing news seems to have an interesting summary, and provides a useful map (HT):

ukraine-crisis

U/D, Mar 5th: Now, is this about oil, in large measure — shades of “blood for oil”?

HT VJT, here is an oil pipeline map, from  World Observer Online :

the_Ukraine_oil_line_map

On BBC news just now (a Caribbean tradition, even though BBC today is nothing like it once was . . . itself connected to the culture-wide confrontation over worldviews and origins) Ukrainians heading to work were stopped by Russian troops in Armoured Personnel carriers on the “front lines” threatening to shoot them in the legs, after three warning shots.

This unfolding crisis is of course not directly on topic for UD, but is worth monitoring in its own right and in light of connexions to the nuke-threshold situation in the Persian Gulf, and Syria’s simmering chaos — both being allies of Putin’s Russia . . . and with Venezuela orbiting in similar circles even as it has its own chaotic situation. Impacts on oil, financial markets and general economic situations practically beg to be drawn out and discussed.

Not to mention, Ms Sarah Palin’s then derided October 21, 2008 “scenario four” prediction (probably rooted in drawing parallels to the 1938 crisis in light of Russian desires for Crimea, where its main Black Sea Fleet base is located):

[youtube GhCh4wkYlCQ]

Where of course, Ms Palin is a capital example of the way the cultural controversies too often play out, including over design theory, in an atmosphere of well-poisoning contempt largely — though obviously not only [can we all agree to disagree without being unnecessarily disagreeable?] — coming from the side that imagines it is the vanguard of scientifically informed progress and too often  sees those who differ with them as by and large “ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked.”.

So, why not have a UD thread to allow tracking the development at our favourite site for discussion?

(I don’t find the general coverage particularly well organised or insightful, let’s see if we can do better.)

Also, the unfolding crisis and reactions to it are highly revealing on the cultural civil war across our civilisation centred on issues tied to the debates over origins and linked ethical foundations of culture: if humans are morally governed beings, what does that mean?

Let us ponder, together.

UD regulars and visitors are therefore also encouraged to add links to tracking information below as this story unfolds now that an ultimatum seems to have been given (or was it . . . even that seems fuzzy).  END

PS: A question of agent provocation sniping has been raised in thread by JWT which I just saw March 6th, so here is the clip with the taped phone call, reflect on 7:11 on in light of the context:

[youtube OSCmnWw0JeU]

Nasty whichever way it goes, but the geo-strategically pivotal issue is Russian intervention, the illegitimacy of which is seen from the removal of national identification from uniforms.

Comments
FT on after Crimea what's next -- looks like a Russian prof speaking out: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a6c2e8f6-ab99-11e3-90af-00144feab7de.htmlkairosfocus
March 17, 2014
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U/D: A lesson in state of the art agit-prop Plato's Cave games manipulation and intimidation . . . Kyiv Post on the Crimea "referendum" held over the weekend:
1] Protasova on referendum at gunpoint: http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/nataliia-protasova-referendum-at-gunpoint-339628.html >> Today, the illegitimate referendum recognized only by Russia took place in Crimea. The Crimean government announced that that no less than 80 percent of peninsula's population took part in the referendum. Today in Kerch, Crimea, while some people glumly walked to polling stations with the understanding that their vote won't change a thing, Russia's supporters celebrated the long-awaited day. >> 2] AP, on 97% favour join now: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/associated-press-final-results-show-97-percent-of-voters-in-crimea-support-joining-russia-339647.html >> The final results of the referendum in Crimea show that 97 percent of voters have supported leaving Ukraine to join Russia, the head of the referendum election commission said Monday. Mikhail Malyshev told a televised news conference that final tally from Sunday's vote was 96.8 percent in favor of splitting from Ukraine. He also said that the commission has not registered a single complaint about the vote. >> 3] Reuters, on Russia closing in, Ukraine fearful & defiant: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/reuters-as-russia-closes-in-ukrainians-fearful-defiant-339651.html >> Ukrainian museum caretaker Valentin knows what it's like when Moscow sends in troops to occupy a reluctant ally - he was there, in Red Army uniform, when Soviet tanks rolled in to crush the Prague Spring in 1968. "We were the occupiers then. Now we are the ones who are being occupied by the Russians," he said, shaking his head at the irony of history which sees Ukraine, long Moscow's closest partner, losing Crimea after Sunday's Kremlin-backed referendum there and fearing further invasion from the east. But, surveying Kiev war museum's display of tanks and combat aircraft, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin must beware. As Ukraine's government called up troops, and television ran images of Ukrainian armour on the move to a soundtrack of anti-Soviet patriotic song, he said the nation of 46 million would be no pushover: "We would resist. There would be a partisan war." >> Notice, the Museum director on the turnabout accusation tactic in use: >> "Us fascists?" asked Valentin. "They're the fascists," he said, likening the "referendum at gunpoint" he expects to annex Crimea to the invasion he was part of as a young conscript, when Soviet leaders claimed to have been invited by Czechoslovakia to lend "fraternal help" against a purported right-wing plot. Putin uses the role of far-right groups in last month's overthrow of his elected ally in Kiev to brand Ukraine's new leaders as neo-Nazis and to warn he may send troops to "protect" citizens of the "brotherly state". That offends staff and visitors to the memorial park, whose anger and confusion over a possible war reflects emotions felt by many in the capital. >>
Somewhere out in the nether regions the ghosts of Goebbels, Stalin and Alinsky are laughing. We, should be weeping. Now, transfer the lessons to other cases and understand how we are being manipulated and intimidated more subtly elsewhere and on other topics in our civilisation. KF PS: If you have been monitoring the sadly "standard" design objector tactics of dismissing terms used in our discussions, such as micro vs macro evo, the reference to stasis as a dominant feature of the fossil record, the want of transitionals, etc etc, and accusations of willful and systematic misrepresentation on our part, cf here for a marked up newspaper clipping from a report on the 1980 Field Museum closed doors conference of a top circle of 150, tracing to a NYT report by Boyce Rensberger. kairosfocus
March 17, 2014
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JG, No. Russia has a legitimate interest in rights of minorities (but does not have a good track record at home), however that does not excuse geostrategic games and aggression. What we are seeing here comes right out of 1938. And the Western leadership are doing the same mistakes again. It has emerged that US, Britain and Russia guaranteed Ukraine's integrity AND that NATO did the same. That was the basis on which Ukraine surrendered its ex-Sov nukes. But there has been no serious stance that would give Putin pause. That kind of folly killed the League of Nations and set the stage for WW II. This time, nukes are in play . . . and, a lot of key decision-makers in capitals around the world from Canberra to Vilnius and Jerusalem not to mention Riyadh -- and, ominously, Tehran -- are now realising that US and NATO backing may be worth no more than the results of the last US Presidential election. (Don't people realise that such folly is a sure road to war? But then, I suspect history books do not draw out the lessons . . . ) And, maybe, we have here a basis for beginning to understand the quality of what Bush senior did in helping to see that the breakup of the USSR and wider Warsaw Pact (complete with reunification of Germany) had a minimum of this sort of thing. But I am convinced that the major media and the general public they influence, have little or no interest in understanding either history or geo-strategic issues, principles and implications soundly. It is so much easier to spin or swallow cartoonish caricatures. That is one root of many follies. KFkairosfocus
March 15, 2014
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Are you saying what Russia is doing is correct measure then? Protecting what it considers as it's nationals from any forces that might try to send them (back) to Russia by entering that foreign land and practically treating it as it's own land? Sure, they may cast a vote, but the Ukrainians haven't even had a chance to breath since the removal of the former president. Perhaps, if Crimea is absorbed by Russia, the Ukraine can subsequently enter Crimea to protect it's own nationals still in Crimea using the same logic! What do you think should be done (if anything at all) by all the currently interested and/or active players? Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, EU members, US, Canada, Japan and others...JGuy
March 14, 2014
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JG: After WW II, many German descendants in the east were forcibly resettled in Germany; cf. here. KFkairosfocus
March 14, 2014
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If there were Russian citizens that country X considered also as X nationalists living in Russia. Should the government of country X then send forces to invade Russia to protect the nationalists and occupy whatever land they live on when any drastic changes in the Russian government occur? ..or.. Should the government of country X let those people decide whether they want to live in the new changed Russia or simply invite them back to country X?JGuy
March 14, 2014
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Shades of 1938kairosfocus
March 14, 2014
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Ukraine - more potential dissection: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/russia-says-it-has-right-to-intervene-in-donetsk-after-clashes-339401.htmlJGuy
March 14, 2014
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Ready to get nuclear(again): http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/10/ukraine-nuclear/6250815/JGuy
March 10, 2014
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Interesting reading. My concerns on reading Putin's motives pivot on the disguised intervention and the apparently questionable terms of the referendum. A man knowing he was right would not be doing that.kairosfocus
March 10, 2014
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Hi kairosfocus, Here's an interesting article from the Christian Science Monitor: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2014/0307/China-to-Russia-You-re-putting-us-in-a-tight-spot And here's an opposing viewpoint from American Thinker: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/03/as_china_and_india_back_russia_ukraine_crisis_is_over.html On the right to secession: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Security-Watch/2014/0309/Obama-refuses-to-recognize-a-Russian-Crimea.-But-is-secession-illegal-video For background knowledge, try this: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/2013/1202/How-much-do-you-know-about-Ukraine-Take-our-quiz/vjtorley
March 10, 2014
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@Axel:
Putin’s Russia is the only remaining superpower that is currently a bastion of Christianity.
Are you joking?JWTruthInLove
March 10, 2014
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A: I fear P may be playing the entanglement and co-optation game. With the US, I think the pattern is more complex, a rising apostasy multiplied by a hollowing out core, cutting off from historical roots, being overawed by "science" the rise of hedonism, the celebrity and entertainment culture and worship of wealth. Plus the corrosive effects of mass bloodguilt over is it 55 million abortions (it's not just a few prison camp commandants and guards). And more. KFkairosfocus
March 10, 2014
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Re #57, KF, alas, Putin's Russia is the only remaining superpower that is currently a bastion of Christianity. We know the extraordinary constraints Putin must be under to continue to keep the ravening wolves of the West at bay, and his own domestic gangster-oligarchs under some sort of control. The UK is such a small country, with five hundred years odd of spy services, the latter have a poultice on the populace, so can do pretty much what they like under the radar. And in the US, discretion is no longer even necessary; an outcome for the country seemingly foreseen and feared by Eisenhower, though such Mammon-worship, allied to Moloch-worship, was bound to breed a culture of extraordinary wall-to-wall violence.Axel
March 9, 2014
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Kissinger weighs in: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html So does Brzezinski: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/zbigniew-brzezinski-after-putins-aggression-in-ukraine-the-west-must-be-ready-to-respond/2014/03/03/25b3f928-a2f5-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html --> I should say, that it's a no-brainer that no-one should get into a shooting war with Russia in its backyard especially; Russia is the core of Mackinder's World Island and it cannot be conquered, even before we get to nukes. --> What may be possible is to stop this at Crimea, and secure the rest of Ukraine, maybe even getting a face saving eventual climb-down to some sort of Crimean autonomous region. Russia already has several decades lease on its fleet base and is building another elsewhere on the Black Sea. I should add the port-base in Syria, and the long run Russian drive for ice-free ports. That is why places like St Petersburg, Crimea and Vladivostok are crucial to Russia. --> The best we can hope for is a new generation of Russian leaders and thinkers not unduly shaped by the Cold War era, but don't hold your breathkairosfocus
March 9, 2014
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PPPS: Dr Condoleeza Rice (a Russia Expert) weighs in: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/condoleezza-rice-will-america-heed-the-wake-up-call-of-ukraine/2014/03/07/cf087f74-a630-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html --> Read her, read others, including the view linked by Axel, and make up your own mind. --> I add this, by the just former president of Georgia who was president there in 2008: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mikheil-saakashvili-the-west-must-not-appease-putin/2014/03/06/db9e0c82-a4a9-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html kairosfocus
March 9, 2014
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PPS: Norway's aftenposten on the Crimean Parliament vote based on interviews with parliamentarians: http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/Voting-fraud-secured-pro-russian-majority-in-Crimean-parliament-7496130.html#.UxyG1KXsFFLkairosfocus
March 9, 2014
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PS: The cynical nature of the referendum (cf. here) to be held in several days time removes any doubt that Putin is up to no good. The West is guilty of many sins but that is no excuse to jump from frying pan into fire. Just ask the Christian peoples of Syria and Egypt or North Africa and Spain how much good that did them when Islam came knocking at the door.kairosfocus
March 9, 2014
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Axel: Pardon, home late after an Ac 16 type incident. Quick points, you will notice my "for all her sins" speaking of Britain. The same holds for America and for that matter Rome. But, in the end for all their sins . . . remember I bear the name of a man unjustly hanged by a colonial governor after a kangaroo court under martial law he should not have been tried under, the interests of a regional or global maritime power typically make it more a friend than an enemy of liberty. I suggest you look at that incident too when Hitler tried the turnabout on Roosevelt who asked pointed questions early in 1939. He pointed to the sins of Britain and France, and America, assuring the world of how he had secured the views of various European powers on his peaceful intent. All the while the plans against Poland were in full swing. As for Hitler being anybody's baby but the devil, the various parties, power blocs and industrialists tried to cut deals or thought they . . . especially Pappen and Hindenberg, could hold him in check. Big mistake. They were dealing with a carpet-chewing demoniac [literally, not metaphorically], a Nietzschean superman amoral antichrist political messiah (cf. the visual here if you doubt me) who did not hesitate to be blasphemous or to seek to subvert the churches with a false racial-political gospel. Quickie. KFkairosfocus
March 9, 2014
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For a less ideologically-driven perspective, perhaps, than, KF's or mine, here is a presumably-disinterested perspective on the troubled Ukraine: http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/world-news/detail/articolo/ucraina-ukraine-ucrania-32494/Axel
March 9, 2014
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From your #42, kairosfocus: 'It is smart enough to cut deals with industrialists and other groups, and worm its way to power, unchecked power.' Not quite. The industrialists needed no encouragement to support Hitler: he was their baby. That of most of the liberal professions, too, the monied people. (Just as our far-right, backwoodsmen, Tory politicians and their industrialist puppeteers did not need to be sweet-talked into supporting that most wretched of demagogues, M Thatcher.) The latter, so much so, that train-loads of books chronicling the works of the likes of Mengele in the concentration camps, mandated to be delivered to all the physicians and lawyers in the country, simply went missing. None was ever delivered. Indeed, before WWII, the monied people in the West (also the Antipodes), at one point reached a truly scandalous pitch of fanatical admiration and support for Mussolini, Hitler, and fascism, generally. As, indeed, the continuing security of Franco and Salazar in the Iberian peninsula attested. No regime changes contemplated there! And let's just cast a veil over what's been going on in South America, from long before WWII.Axel
March 9, 2014
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kairofocus, I can't understand how blind you can be to the reality of our geopolitics. Read this piece on the cluborlov.com blog, and the four on the topic of the Ukraine, above it. The one immediately above it is not germane. There are only three certainties in life: death, taxes, and the West will be the wrong'uns in any geopolitical imbroglio. As for Kerry's hilariously hypocritical admonishment of Russia's role in the affair..! It beggars belief.Axel
March 9, 2014
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Nasty developments in Ukraine: 1 --> Warning shots fired at a Ukrainian aircraft near the emerging "border": http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10685346/Ukraine-crisis-warning-shots-at-border-confirm-new-Europes-new-frontier.html 2 --> Foreign minister Lavrov of Russia says crisis created "artificially": http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26495378 >> Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: "This crisis was not created by us" Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said the crisis in Ukraine was "created artificially for purely geopolitical reasons". >> . . . a classic twist-about, turnspeech blame projecting propagandistic accusation. A tactic notorious from 1938. 3 --> US State Dept gives pessimistic summary http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-crisis-tension-escalates-on-ground-in-crimea-1.2565033 >> U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russia on Saturday that any steps to annex Ukraine's Crimea region would close the door to diplomacy, a U.S. State Department official said. Kerry's latest telephone call with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, came as the standoff between occupying Russian forces and besieged Ukrainian troops intensified in Crimea. "He made clear that continued military escalation and provocation in Crimea or elsewhere in Ukraine, along with steps to annex Crimea to Russia would close any available space for diplomacy, and he urged utmost restraint," the official said. >> Not good. KF PS: here is the Wiki summary: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_crisiskairosfocus
March 9, 2014
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Reuters on the cyberattacks in Ukraine: http://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-authorities-suffer-cyber-attacks-141351496--finance.htmlkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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edited at request (have to leave a trace given recent accusations)JGuy
March 8, 2014
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edited at request . . . JGuy
March 8, 2014
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Can't see beyond the headlines for FT, doesn't surprise me though, Internet and networks are now vital to government. We all better look to our firewalls, as this sort of weapons strength malware will spread far and wide. I once found Stuxnet on one of my machines in a malware scan. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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JG: That sounds a lot like the old KGB wet affairs Dept. Let us not forget that in 1979 the Afghan President (a communist) who invited in Russian troops was apparently killed by them in a few weeks thereafter. KFkairosfocus
March 8, 2014
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http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2014/03/07/world/europe/ap-eu-ukraine-sniper-mystery.html?ref=world vs. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/05/ukraine-bugged-call-catherine-ashton-urmas-paet vs other possibilitiesJGuy
March 8, 2014
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Cyber warfare: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/615c29ba-a614-11e3-8a2a-00144feab7de.html#axzz2vMGiPj6YJGuy
March 8, 2014
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