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Three puzzles that are real – A response to a skeptic

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In his latest post on Uncommon Descent, “Evolution” is a Political Controversy? (Or, am I Living in an Alternate Multiverse?), Gil Dodgen shot down claims by author Alan Rogers that the controversy over the theory of evolution is a political controversy.

It’s not a political controversy. It is:

1) An evidential controversy (for example, the fossil record, especially the Cambrian explosion).

2) A logical and computational controversy (the insufficiency of random errors producing highly complex, functionally integrated, self-correcting computer code).

3) A mathematical controversy (clearly insufficient probabilistic resources for anything but the most trivial changes based on Darwinian mechanisms).

Politics have nothing to do with any of this. It’s just basic reason, logic, and evidence.

Yesterday, I came across the following response by a skeptic who wasn’t terribly impressed:

1. The Cambrian “explosion” took many millions of years. It was originally called an “explosion” because research and information about it were limited at that time and it appeared that many species arose very quickly (geologically speaking). It is now usually called the Cambrian radiation.

2. Biological entities are not computers and do not contain “computer code”.

3. The probabilistic resources crap (sic) is based on made up numbers that mean absolutely nothing.

My message to the Skeptic (that’s what I’ll call him for the rest of this post) can be summed up in one sentence: you’ve got a lot of reading to do. Where to begin? Let’s address one point at a time.


Puzzle Number 1. The Cambrian Explosion

First, the Skeptic’s claim that the Cambrian explosion is now usually called the Cambrian radiation is simply rubbish. A quick search over on PubMed revealed 39 science papers with the phrase “Cambrian explosion” in the title, and only 7 with the phrase “Cambrian radiation” in the title. A Google search on the phrase “Cambrian explosion” brought up 342,000 hits, while “Cambrian radiation” brought up only 36,600 results. In scientific circles, as well as common parlance, the phrase “Cambrian explosion” is several times more common than “Cambrian radiation.”

Second, the Cambrian explosion took about 25 million years, by a fairly generous estimate. That is not “many millions of years”; compared to the age of the Earth (4,540 million years), it’s a geological eyeblink. The online brochure, Questions about the Cambrian Explosion, Evolution, and Intelligent Design lists several estimates of the length of the explosion, varying from 5 or 6 million years up to 20 million years.

Third, most of the thirty or so phyla of animals alive on Earth today arose during this narrow window of time, so the skeptic’s statement that it only “appeared that many species arose very quickly (geologically speaking)” (italics mine) during the Cambrian explosion is flat wrong.

Even scientists who have no sympathy for Intelligent Design acknowledge that it poses a real puzzle for evolutionists. In a science journal article entitled MicroRNAs and metazoan macroevolution: insights into canalization, complexity, and the Cambrian explosion (BioEssays 31:736-747, 2009. DOI: 10.1002/bies.20090003), authors Kevin J. Peterson, Michael R. Dietrich and Mark A. McPeek argue that the term “explosion” is an apt one:

One of the most interesting challenges facing paleobiologists is explaining the Cambrian explosion, the dramatic appearance of most metazoan animal phyla in the Early Cambrian, and the subsequent stability of these body plans over the ensuing 530 million years…

Beginning some 555 million years ago the Earth’s biota changed in profound and fundamental ways, going from an essentially static system billions of years in existence to the one we find today, a dynamic and awesomely complex system whose origin seems to defy explanation. Part of the intrigue with the Cambrian explosion is that numerous animal phyla with very distinct body plans arrive on the scene in a geological blink of the eye, with little or no warning of what is to come in rocks that predate this interval of time…

Darwin’s explanation for the Cambrian explosion was that the fossil record was incomplete, but since Darwin penned his hypothesis over 150 years ago, we have learned two immutable facts about the late Precambrian fossil record. First, although chock full of organic forms, the Ediacaran [the period preceding the Cambrian – VJT] is remarkably reticent with its animal ancestors — besides sponges only Kimberella has received broad acceptance as a metazoan, possibly a molluscan metazoan. And second, the geologic fossil record is a fairly accurate representation of biotic evolution such that both molecular clock analyses and paleoecological considerations agree that mobile macrophagous animals are no older than about the Ediacaran itself. Thus, elucidating the materialistic basis of the Cambrian explosion has become more elusive, not less, the more we know about the event itself, and cannot be explained away by coupling extinction of intermediates with long stretches of geologic time, despite the contrary claims of some modern neo-Darwinists. (Emphases mine – VJT.)

The authors are not Intelligent Design theorists; they propose that “miRNAs [microRNAs] might play an important role in shaping metazoan macroevolution, and might be part of the solution to the Cambrian conundrum.” Time will tell whether their proposal has any scientific merit; however, the authors deserve full credit for at least facing up to the problem.

It would appear that the skeptic has not acquainted himself with the Intelligent Design movement’s literature on the Cambrian explosion, so I’d like to point him to some online resources that may whet his appetite:

Easy reading on the Cambrian explosion

The Cambrian Explosion: Biology’s Big Bang by blogger Wintery Knight.

Does the Cambrian Explosion disprove Darwinian evolution? by blogger Wintery Knight.

Questions about the Cambrian Explosion, Evolution, and Intelligent Design (brochure at the Darwin’s Dilemma Website).

More advanced reading

Stephen C. Meyer, Marcus Ross, Paul Nelson & Paul Chien, The Cambrian Explosion: Biology’s Big Bang in Darwinism, Design, and Public Education (John A. Campbell and Stephen C. Meyer eds., Michigan State University Press, 2003).

Stephen C. Meyer, The origin of biological information and the higher taxonomic categories, in Proceedings of the Biological Society of Washington, Vol. 117(2):213-239 (2004).

Puzzle Number 2. The Origin of Computer code in organisms – yes, it’s real!

As far as I am aware, no Intelligent Design proponent has ever claimed that biological organisms are computers. What ID proponents do claim is that there is digital code in the cells of living things. That’s not a metaphor. That’s real. In the words of Microsoft chairman (and agnostic) Bill Gates:

Human DNA is like a computer program but far, far more advanced than any software we’ve ever created. (The Road Ahead, Penguin: London, Revised, 1996 p. 228.)

Or as the evolutionary biologist Professor Richard Dawkins puts it:

“The machine code of the genes is uncannily computer-like. Apart from differences in jargon, the pages of a molecular biology journal might be interchanged with those of a computer engineering journal.” (River Out of Eden: A Darwinian View of Life, New York:Basic Books/Harper Collins, 1995, p.17.)

Here’s another quote from Professor Dawkins:

“Physics books may be complicated, but … the objects and phenomena that a physics book describes are simpler than a single cell in the body of its author. And the author consists of trillions of those cells, many of them different from each other, organized with intricate architecture and precision-engineering into a working machine capable of writing a book… Each nucleus … contains a digitally coded database larger, in information content, than all thirty volumes of the Encyclopedia Britannica. And this figure is for each cell, not all the cells of the body put together.” (The Blind Watchmaker: Why the Evidence Reveals a Universe Without Design. New York, Norton, 1987, pp. 2-3.)

In the interests of scientific accuracy, I should point out to readers that DNA itself is not a program. Neither would it be accurate to say that the suite of programs running within the cell are simply written on its DNA. Instead, DNA could be better described as a data storage device, used by the programs running the cell.

ID proponent Dr. Don Johnson, who has both a Ph.D. in chemistry and a Ph.D. in computer and information sciences, has made an even stronger case for the reality of computer code in living organisms. On April 8, 2010, Dr. Johnson gave a presentation entitled Bioinformatics: The Information in Life for the University of North Carolina Wilmington chapter of the Association for Computer Machinery. Dr. Johnson’s presentation is now on-line here. Both the talk and accompanying handout notes can be accessed from Dr. Johnson’s Web page. Dr. Johnson spent 20 years teaching in universities in Wisconsin, Minnesota, California, and Europe. Here’s an excerpt from his presentation blurb:

Each cell of an organism has millions of interacting computers reading and processing digital information using algorithmic digital programs and digital codes to communicate and translate information.

On a slide entitled “Information Systems In Life,” Dr. Johnson points out that:

  • the genetic system is a pre-existing operating system;
  • the specific genetic program (genome) is an application;
  • the native language has a codon-based encryption system;
  • the codes are read by enzyme computers with their own operating system;
  • each enzyme’s output is to another operating system in a ribosome;
  • codes are decrypted and output to tRNA computers;
  • each codon-specified amino acid is transported to a protein construction site; and
  • in each cell, there are multiple operating systems, multiple programming languages, encoding/decoding hardware and software, specialized communications systems, error detection/correction systems, specialized input/output for organelle control and feedback, and a variety of specialized “devices” to accomplish the tasks of life.

But wait, there’s more! The following quotes, which are taken from reputable scientific sources, establish the scientific legitimacy of using terms like “instructions,” “code,” “information” and “developmental program” when speaking of the development of animal embryos (emphases are mine):

“We know that the instructions for how the egg develops into an adult are written in the linear sequence of bases along the DNA of the germ cells.” (James Watson et al., Molecular Biology of the Gene, 4th Edition, 1987, p. 747.)

And from a more recent source:

“The body plan of an animal, and hence its exact mode of development, is a property of its species and is thus encoded in the genome. Embryonic development is an enormous informational transaction, in which DNA sequence data generate and guide the system-wide spatial deployment of specific cellular functions.” (Emerging properties of animal gene regulatory networks by Eric H. Davidson. Nature 468, issue 7326 [16 December 2010]: 911-920. doi:10.1038/nature09645. Davidson is a Professor of Cell Biology at the California Institute of Technology.)

Here’s another recent quote, from an article by Schnorrer et al., on the development of muscle function in the fruitfly Drosophila:

“It is fascinating how the genetic programme of an organism is able to produce such different cell types out of identical precursor cells.” (Schnorrer F., C. Schonbauer, C. Langer, G. Dietzl, M. Novatchkova, K. Schernhuber, M. Fellner, A. Azaryan, M. Radolf, A. Stark, K. Keleman, & B. Dickson, Systematic Genetic Analysis of Muscle Morphogenesis and Function in Drosophila. Nature, 464, 287-291 (11 March 2010). doi:10.1038/nature08799.)

And finally, here is another quote from Professor Richard Dawkins, in The Greatest Show on Earth (Transworld Publishers, London, Black Swan edition, 2010, p. 217):

“…[T]here is a mystery, verging on the miraculous (but never quite getting there) in the very fact that a single cell gives rise to a body in all its complexity. And the mystery is only somewhat mitigated by the feat’s being achieved with the aid of DNA instructions. The reason the mystery remains is that we find it hard to imagine, even in principle, how we might set about writing the instructions for building a body in the way the body is in fact built, namely by what I have just called ‘self-assembly’, which is related to what computer programmers call a ‘bottom-up’, as opposed to a ‘top-down’, procedure.

Dawkins goes on to say that “local rules” make it plausible that this process was accomplished naturally, over a period of one billion years. Whether he is right on this point or not, what I find interesting is that he nevertheless feels the need to employ terms like “instructions” and “rules,” in order to describe the process whereby an embryo is put together.

In short: talk of codes and instructions is not anthropomorphic; it’s a perfectly accurate description of the way each cell works.

The Case for the Intelligent Design of the Cell in a Nutshell:

What accounts for the information in DNA? Part 3 of Stephen Meyer’s Series on the John Ankerberg Show (Skip the first three minutes, if you like.)

Or if you prefer a short 86-second video (a picture is worth 1,000 words):

The ATP Synthase Enzyme. Here’s my short commentary on the video: The video that proves Intelligent Design. I defy anyone to watch this and then tell me the cell wasn’t designed!

Puzzle Number 3. Insufficient Probabilistic Resources to Account for the Origin of Life

The Skeptic claimed that “the probabilistic resources crap (sic) is based on made up numbers that mean absolutely nothing.” I strongly suggest that he peruse Dr. Douglas Axe’s scientific papers at his leisure.

Recent Papers by Dr. Douglas Axe

The Case Against a Darwinian Origin of Protein Folds, Bio-Complexity, Vol. 2010.

Abstract

Four decades ago, several scientists suggested that the impossibility of any evolutionary process sampling anything but a miniscule fraction of the possible protein sequences posed a problem for the evolution of new proteins. This potential problem—the sampling problem —was largely ignored, in part because those who raised it had to rely on guesswork to fill some key gaps in their understanding of proteins. The huge advances since that time call for a careful reassessment of the issue they raised. Focusing specifically on the origin of new protein folds, I argue here that the sampling problem remains. The difficulty stems from the fact that new protein functions, when analyzed at the level of new beneficial phenotypes, typically require multiple new protein folds, which in turn require long stretches of new protein sequence. Two conceivable ways for this not to pose an insurmountable barrier to Darwinian searches exist. One is that protein function might generally be largely indifferent to protein sequence. The other is that relatively simple manipulations of existing genes, such as shuffling of genetic modules, might be able to produce the necessary new folds. I argue that these ideas now stand at odds both with known principles of protein structure and with direct experimental evidence. If this is correct, the sampling problem is here to stay, and we should be looking well outside the Darwinian framework for an adequate explanation of fold origins.

Here’s a short non-technical summary of Dr. Axe’s latest paper by blogger Wintery Knight:
Doug Axe publishes a new peer-reviewed paper on protein folding.

Earlier papers by Dr. Douglas Axe

(1) Douglas D. Axe, “Extreme Functional Sensitivity to Conservative Amino Acid Changes on Enzyme Exteriors,” Journal of Molecular Biology, Vol. 301:585-595 (2000). See here for the abstract.

(2) Douglas D. Axe, “Estimating the Prevalence of Protein Sequences Adopting Functional Enzyme Folds,” Journal of Molecular Biology, 1-21 (2004). See here for the abstract.

Here’s Dr. Stephen Meyer’s summary of Douglas Axe’s article in his 2004 paper, “The Origin of Biological Information and the Higher Taxonomic Categories”:

“Axe (2004) has performed site directed mutagenesis experiments on a 150-residue protein-folding domain within a B-lactamase enzyme. His experimental method improves upon earlier mutagenesis techniques and corrects for several sources of possible estimation error inherent in them. On the basis of these experiments, Axe has estimated the ratio of (a) proteins of typical size (150 residues) that perform a specified function via any folded structure to (b) the whole set of possible amino acids sequences of that size. Based on his experiments, Axe has estimated his ratio to be 1 to 10^77. Thus, the probability of finding a functional protein among the possible amino acid sequences corresponding to a 150-residue protein is similarly 1 in 10^77.”

Here’s Casey Luskin’s summary of Douglas Axe’s article in an essay entitled, Responding to the Youtube Challenge to Discovery Institute: Does Any Critic Out There Understand Intelligent Design? Anyone? …Anyone?:

Doug Axe’s research likewise studies genes that it turns out show great evidence of design. Axe studied the sensitivities of protein function to mutations. In these “mutational sensitivity” tests, Dr. Axe mutated certain amino acids in various proteins, or studied the differences between similar proteins, to see how mutations or changes affected their ability to function properly. He found that protein function was highly sensitive to mutation, and that proteins are not very tolerant to changes in their amino acid sequences. In other words, when you mutate, tweak, or change these proteins slightly, they stopped working. In one of his papers, he thus concludes that “functional folds require highly extraordinary sequences,” and that functional protein folds “may be as low as 1 in 10^77.”

Here’s a comment by blogger Wintery Knight in a post entitled, Doug Axe explains the chances of getting a functional protein by chance:

Even if you fill the universe with pre-biotic soup, and react amino acids at Planck time (very fast!) for 14 billion years, you are probably not going to get even 1 such protein. And you need at least 100 of them for minimal life functions, plus DNA and RNA.

An Important Update by Dr. Douglas Axe:

Correcting Four Misconceptions about my 2004 Article in JMB by Douglas Axe (May 4, 2011).

What is the relevance of all this for Intelligent Design?

The Skeptic may be wondering, “Does all this support Intelligent Design?” Dr. Douglas Axe certainly thinks so. John G. West reports that back in late 2006, Dr. Axe was asked via e-mail by New Scientist reporter Celeste Biever to respond to the charge

[t]hat you have neither confirmed nor denied claims by William Dembski (in his book “Debating Design: From Darwin to DNA” and in several articles he has written) that a paper you published in 2000 (J Mol Biol, 2000 Aug 18; 301(3):585-95) is evidence for ID, or by Stephen Meyer, in his paper “The origin of biological information” (PROCEEDINGS OF THE BIOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF WASHINGTON 117(2):213-239. 2004), that your 2004 paper (J Mol Biol. 2004 Aug 27;341(5):1295-315) is evidence for ID.

Dr. Axe wrote back the following, which New Scientist declined to quote:

I have in fact confirmed that these papers add to the evidence for ID. I concluded in the 2000 JMB paper that enzymatic catalysis entails “severe sequence constraints”. The more severe these constraints are, the less likely it is that they can be met by chance. So, yes, that finding is very relevant to the question of the adequacy of chance, which is very relevant to the case for design. In the 2004 paper I reported experimental data used to put a number on the rarity of sequences expected to form working enzymes. The reported figure is less than one in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion. Again, yes, this finding does seem to call into question the adequacy of chance, and that certainly adds to the case for intelligent design.

Finally, here’s an excerpt from a short essays by Dr. Douglas Axe, entitled, Breaking News from the Academy: There’s Plenty of Time for Evolution!:

In the end, whether evolution has plenty of time or not depends on what you want to ascribe to it. It copes well with the most favorable adaptations conceivable (those offering substantial benefit after a single nucleotide substitution), but even slightly more complex tasks involving just two or three mutations can easily stump it [3,4]. The key question, then, is this: What, of all life’s marvels, can be accounted for in terms of the single-change adaptations that Darwinism explains? And the answer, if we take Dawkins’ illustration seriously, is: Nothing that approaches the complexity of a six-word sentence.

You don’t need a biology degree to see that this leaves Darwinism in a difficult position. In fact, oddly enough, it seems that biology degrees only make it harder to see.

The Skeptic charged that “the probabilistic resources crap (sic) is based on made up numbers that mean absolutely nothing.” I hope he’ll eat his words now.

Perhaps, at this point, the Skeptic will repeat his mantra that “Goddidit is a science stopper.” Any explanation, he will argue, has to be better than that one. So here’s my challenge to the skeptic: show me ONE alternative naturalistic explanation for the origin of the cell and for the rise in complexity that took place at the Cambrian explosion, which does NOT require any intelligent foresight. Show me calculations, demonstrating at least in principle that your mechanism is capable of generating the complexity found in living things. Go on – let’s see you do it!

Comments
I neglected to mention the second reason why the expression is misleading. It causes one to visualize a gap between two things, giving the impression that "gap" is somehow quantified. Like when you're missing a piece of a puzzle - you know exactly what that piece will look like. The subtle suggestion is that solving these mysteries is as simple as finding a piece that fits. The truth is that no one knows what that piece is shaped like because they are missing most of the pieces. All they have is the picture on the box.ScottAndrews
August 6, 2011
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"God of the gaps" is a misleading expression first because it implies a nearly or partially completed continuum, as if nearly everything had been figured out. If a person has a space between their teeth we call it a gap. If they have one tooth or none, we don't call that a gap. It's an inapplicable expression unless someone is explicitly filling the "gaps" with God. It translates to 'Don't use your fantasies to fill in the "gaps." You may only use our fantasies.'ScottAndrews
August 6, 2011
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lastyearon, I didn't intend anything cheeky by omitting necessity. I'll try and be more careful.
Doesn’t this sound like a god-of-the-gaps argument to you?
No, I can't say it does. Because god-of-the-gaps is a straw man used in an attempt to discredit ANY observation which might suggest design. In other words, there is no inference to design which can be made, that will satisfy the criticism that it's god-of-the-gaps reasoning. That's a criticism leveled by default against any invoking of an intelligent cause. It's lost all its punch in the overuse. Let me try this. The event we observe, a living system, has one of two explanations: 1) it's designed; 2) it's not designed (chance/necessity, aka physical law, natural processes, etc). If we can demonstrate that intelligent intervention (design) is not required, then we've demonstrated the efficacy of c/n to account for it. No design required, IDists go home. If invoking everything we know about physics, chemistry, and probability doesn't produce a single viable explanation in over fifty years, it seems reasonable that design, at the very least, is on the table -- that it is a viable explanation, NOT a REQUIRED one. I mean that's the minimum, that design should be considered reasonable even if some consider it unsatisfying. However the game is, as it stands, to rule out design at all cost, and give it no quarter, nor anyone who promotes the idea. I think that's deeply flawed, and depends on a severe ideology. Invoking design does neither of these: 1) halt the progress of science; 2) prevent anyone from continuing the search for strictly material explanations. I don't know how to say it any other way. The only reason I can see for rejecting the design hypothesis out of hand, is that the idea is seriously offensive to some. I really have no explanation for why that is. Do you have any objections to scientists following evidence that allows for the possibility of a living system being designed? Is there any good reason to believe that a designer of living systems is not required? I don't mean philosophical reasons, but scientific ones. Is there anything that you would consider evidence of a designer of life? If you can answer those questions, there may be more to discuss. In the meantime, thanks for the discussion. m.i.material.infantacy
August 5, 2011
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lastyearon:
If we don’t know of any scenario driven by chance and necessity which could possibly account for what we observe, then what does the insistence that it must’ve come about by chance and necessity amount to?
Could you perhaps make any less sense?Mung
August 5, 2011
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m.i.
If we don’t know of any chance scenario which could possibly account for what we observe, then what does the insistence that it must’ve come about by chance amount to?
Why did you omit necessity? Let me restate the above, this time including necessity.
If we don’t know of any scenario driven by chance and necessity which could possibly account for what we observe, then what does the insistence that it must’ve come about by chance and necessity amount to?
And let me rephrase it a little further, this time by substituting "chance and necessity" with "nature". (And if this isn't a valid substitution, let me know why)
If we don’t know of any natural scenario which could possibly account for what we observe, then what does the insistence that it must’ve come about naturally amount to?
Doesn't this sound like a god-of-the-gaps argument to you?lastyearon
August 5, 2011
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I'm suggesting a corollary to what we observe. What is chance suggesting? Back later... m.i.material.infantacy
August 5, 2011
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But LYO, neither is chance-of-the-gaps reasonable. If we don't know of any chance scenario which could possibly account for what we observe, then what does the insistence that it must've come about by chance amount to?material.infantacy
August 5, 2011
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Ok. So, if I understand you correctly, you are saying that we don't know how chance and necessity can create things like life. And that as long as we don't know, it is reasonable to suggest that life was designed by an intelligent agency. Many ID proponents, including Stephen Meyer in his recent book, would argue otherwise, saying that we know that chance and necessity cannot create complex things like life. My argument above stands in that case. To your argument, I would say that it sounds a lot like god-of-the-gaps.lastyearon
August 5, 2011
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Hi lastyearon, here's that quote again with some added emphasis:
There’s a fundamental problem with chance and necessity though, and that’s neither can be invoked as a cause for living systems, based on what we know about either one.
This is really a statement regarding what we know about chance and necessity. There may indeed be some unknown phenomena or laws which govern the spontaneous generation of living systems, and it will always remain a possibility that we'll discover exactly that. But we can't invoke the unknown in order to explain what we observe. I'm not saying that we could never invoke chance and necessity -- certainly if it could be empirically demonstrated that such are capable, we would be obligated to defer to such causes. However based on what we observe, and what we "know," there are only two potential causes for it: 1) chance and necessity, that is, physical law; 2) design. Any materialistic scenario which must generate a minimum proto-self-replicator, i.e., a living cell with DNA and the proteins which process it, exposes staggering odds, in the realm of the utterly inconceivable. So based on what we know today, design appears to be the best explanation, though it's apparent we have a lot more to learn.
If I understand you correctly, you’re saying that (a) we know that chance and necessity are not capable of producing certain things. And (b) we know that intelligent agents are capable of producing those things. Therefore, since life is one of those things, only intelligent agents could have produced them.
I'm saying that we don't know any chance and necessity scenarios which allow for its efficacy. That's different from saying that we know that chance and necessity are incapable. And we know design is. So I'm insistent that design is a valid provisional explanation, pending the discovery of some new force or process which allows complex specified systems to come about in a "petri dish" of sorts. Chance and necessity could never be ruled out entirely; but it's entirely reasonable, based on what we know, to avoid attributing what we observe in a living system, to chance and necessity at this point in our discoveries.material.infantacy
August 5, 2011
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Material.infancy
There’s a fundamental problem with chance and necessity though, and that’s neither can be invoked as a cause for living systems, based on what we know about either one.
Your assuming your conclusion in your argument. If I understand you correctly, you're saying that (a) we know that chance and necessity are not capable of producing certain things. And (b) we know that intelligent agents are capable of producing those things. Therefore, since life is one of those things, only intelligent agents could have produced them. But how do you already know that chance and necessity are not capable of producing those things? If chance and necessity produced life, then it is capable of producing those things.lastyearon
August 5, 2011
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David W. Gibson:
As a comparison, if I shuffle a deck and take the top 5 cards, what are my odds of (that is, how many trials will I require to get) a straight flush? It would surely take a long while. But what if I get to keep the cards I want, and keep drawing? Not only are my odds unity, but it will happen FAST. And to me, this seems so obvious I don’t understand the demand for a quantitative model.
What is the relevance of this analogy?Mung
August 5, 2011
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...this is not the forum for such baseless analogies.
I sense another analogy coming!Mung
August 5, 2011
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Because the drunk falls down a set of stairs and that’s where he finds himself, that does not increase his chances of swimming the Atlantic.
I can testify from personal experience this is true! :Dmike1962
August 5, 2011
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David Gibson: mike1962: Or more accurately, you are capable of doing something a computer is doing as well. And if you prevent a door from closing, you are a doorstop!
Indeed. DNA (and whatever other epigenetic factors are involved) produce things that are computers and doorstops. Except these particular doorstops can design and create other doorstops. And computers. And much more.
The original complaint was that at some point, the analogy between computer code and DNA breaks down, as any analogy does.
I would say DNA is more like a CNC code. And the product that is built is a computer and a hell of a lot more. And that is my point to the original skeptic. I don't remember who he was or what thread it was on. While DNA might not be analogous to a Turing tape, it creates "devices" that not only can act like Turing machines, but can understand them and design them. The effect of his point was quite pointless.mike1962
August 5, 2011
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DWG: "Certainly I am not a biologist, not even close. So I see the vast majority of the world’s biologists largely in agreement. Should I agree with them? If not, on what basis? Not on the merits – I’m not qualified to judge the merits. " Then, you are not qualified to entertain *any* opinion on the matter, whatsoever. For, if you are not qualified to reject, as being false, the assertions of "vast majority of the world’s biologists [who are assertedly] largely in agreement" in what they assert, then neither are you qualified to accept these assertions as being true. Nor are you qualified to disagree with, nor judge, some other person who rejects the assertions. Yet, here you are.Ilion
August 4, 2011
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"If I had the research money, I could shoot a bullet into the air, discover where it came down, and calculate the odds of it coming down in that precise location and nowhere else." This type of analogy is used often. The measuring of the distance and calculating the odds is something that an intelligent agent is injecting into a routine chance and necessity outcome after the fact. The calculations are independent of the phenomenon. The phenomenon itself is inevitable. There is nothing improbable about shooting a gun into the air. There is nothing improbable about the bullet being subject to gravity. And there is nothing improbable about a the bullet landing back somewhere on earth. Landing back on earth is an inevitable outcome. OOL is not analogous to this. Using your analogy correctly, it would be as if the shooter fired several bullets into the air, and they all landed back on earth and spelled out his first and last name in the sand. This outcome would not have been considered inevitable. This is more analogous to OOL.junkdnaforlife
August 4, 2011
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David Gibson,
This is an excellent recommendation in principle
I notice here that you start your response with the implicit suggestion that there are times when it’s not a good idea to understand for yourself, or apparently even to attempt to. You (no doubt) are about to tell me I need to hand it off to experts. Quite frankly, I am a little repulsed by that kind of position. I think history is full of factions, and individuals, and governments, and gurus who just love people like you. But I’ll tell you right now that I think you are lying about that in your own life, and that you only say it now to serve your current purposes. At least, that is my hope. Of course, don’t get me wrong; I respect experts for the same reasons as anyone else. They’ve earned their position, and I gain from their journey. If I was sitting in a Doctor’s office being diagnosed with a condition, I would certainly rely on that physician’s expertise. But if that same physician tells me that I’m being punished for something I’ve done – I would have a problem with that. I would not feel the slightest bit obligated by his physician’s license to think he had one wit of sense. By that same token, if that physician tells me that “I” am just an inner delusion amongst the matter and the death, then don’t ask me to turn it over to him, because he is full of shit (for the same reason as the first). I’m not so stupid as to think that his practice of biological science requires him to choose between either idea (they have nothing whatsoever to do with it) and it certainly doesn’t give him any authority over questions I already know he has no answers for. If I find a practitioner who is an expert on everything, I’ll adopt a different position.
You are like the convention of mice deciding that the cat needs to wear a bell. Now, how does one implement this policy?
My ‘o my. In the space of one sentence you’ve gone from suggesting I give up thinking for myself, and before I can step in line with the other cattle, I’ve become a mouse who needs to fear the cat. I am sure you are a very fine propagandist, with an inexhaustible supply of things to say, but honestly, I am not so certain this is your forum. The people around here actually read the data. Perhaps you are subject to a little propaganda yourself. The position espoused by your opening remark would certainly provide that opportunity.
Certainly I am not a biologist, not even close. So I see the vast majority of the world’s biologists largely in agreement. Should I agree with them? If not, on what basis?
Who is it that you are kidding here? You didn’t come to UD to find out if anything valid was going on here; you came here for one reason and one reason only. You came here to fight. You have culture battle dripping from every post you make.
I’m not qualified to judge the merits.
The only thing you’re disqualified from is knowing what the merits are to begin with, so don’t fool yourself otherwise. And that disqualification is something you’ve done to yourself. If you take the stance you’re promoting here, then it just goes with the territory.
I admit I find it difficult to accept that many thousands or tens of thousands of highly intelligent and educated people have devoted their life to real-world experimental research, producing a cumulative body of knowledge for well over a century, and nearly ALL of them have missed the boat.
You ‘admit’ this huh? It’s good that you can talk about it. It might help you to know that every time the consensus was wrong about something, they were first right about it, and usually for a long time. History says it only takes one person to be right. That’s the way science works, so don’t feel bad. There is something else you might want to realize, given that it is of profound importance within empirical pursuits such as science: 1) ID breaks no physical law, and 2) ID has never been refuted on the merits.
For me, this is beyond my suspension of disbelief.
I suggest a history book, or two.
Now, let’s take this a step further and note that those who disagree, besides being a very tiny minority, do almost no research at all.
A tiny minority? Over what scale shall we measure this? Quality of the science? The ability to demonstrate answers? The sheer numbers within the human enterprise of study? Why not just spit in Newton’s face, David? Spit in Maxwell’s. Spit in Pasteur’s. Spit in Galileo’s while you at it. Put on your cape and park a lugie right on Faraday’s forehead; one for the team. Or, are all those old fogies past their prime in your eyes? Did they not live in your time of enlightenment, so they cannot be held accountable for their tired old beliefs? Is that your rationale? And your contemporaries like Behe or Denton, or Abel, and the others? What about someone like Polanyi? You ignore them anyway, so what’s the point. One group you disregard, while you ignore the others. You’ve stuck the perfect balance to be exactly who it is you suggest you are.
And the one or two who DO research, seem to be trying to demonstrate that claims nobody has made are without merit.
Claims that nobody has made? Do you need medication? That’s just hilarious.
This doesn’t mean they’re wrong, of course. But to me it means one must look at the usefulness of the research results, to see if applications based on it work.
Tell me, what is the scientific applicability of the biologist’s claim that the universe is a place of pitiless indifference? What was the test that confirmed this result with such profound conclusion, that forevermore it should be taken as an unassailable fact, unassailable regardless of the evidence against it? Unassailable to the point that we shall redefine the science of Newton and Maxwell and Faraday and Galileo around it?
If I had the research money, I could shoot a bullet into the air, discover where it came down, and calculate the odds of it coming down in that precise location and nowhere else. And I could show that the odds were unacceptably low to the point of near-impossibility, without even breathing hard.
Unfortunately, this mental exercise has nothing to do with anything in ID. It’s just that, a mental exercise, and it’s meaningless. Would you like to know why? Well there are many reasons, but one in particular jumps out at me. The act of shooting a bullet in the air (to have it return to the earth) has physical principles in operation that explain what is taking place. Yet, within the evidence for biological design, there is no such physical principle in operation. Quite to the contrary, all the physical principles in operation work diametrically opposed to what is observed. One must simply take the biological phenomena as a given, then explain how it staves off the entropy which all other systems are subject to. Or, did you not know that? Perhaps you wouldn’t breathe too hard by reading a book or two.
So have I proved that bullets fired into the air DO NOT fall to earth? Have I proved that the research bullet performed a miracle?
This, again, is utterly meaningless. In fact, it’s quite silly. I get what you were going for, but you missed it. I suggest to you again, this is not the forum for such baseless analogies.
Most cogently, if I started out to ‘prove’ that bullets don’t land, would my experimental methodology reflect confirmation bias?
If you only knew how utterly disconnected this line of thinking is from the issues, you would be ashamed to have made this remark.
If I shouldn’t be looking at the probability of landing exactly there, what SHOULD I be looking at?.
Gawd. You should be looking in the mirror. After that, you should be looking at a book that argues the evidence on their actual merits. I promise it won’t hurt. Your airy, swirling, mystical smoke analogies just aren’t cutting it.
Might you suspect that my entire research program was created from the ground up to grind an Axe
Ba-dump-bump! All that for a cheap shot that missed so badly that you made yourself a fool? But you can always learn something, then decide. You certainly wouldn't be the first.Upright BiPed
August 4, 2011
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David: What you are describing in you royal flush analogy seems to be a foreword looking intelligent process with a target. For your analogy to work via blind process, you would have show that each card selected had an initial function of its own. If your opponent held a royal in hearts, then you would need a royal in spades to win. So you begin peeling through the deck and quickly come across the ten of spades and select it. But the ten of spades serves no initial function, as a ten high does not beat a royal in hearts. And since there is no mechanical or chemical process dictating that spades are more likely to stick to your finger than non spades, then you must make a choice to hold the functionless ten of spades. And now you are acting as an intelligent agent working towards a functional target with a purpose. As far as your bridge analogy goes, stating that a specific bridge being dealt may have a high probability against, but any bridge hand being dealt is inevitable, is true. But this is not analogous to folding proteins. If it were, then any chemical combination would inevitably fold some protein. But I do not think this is the case.junkdnaforlife
August 4, 2011
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Is there any reason to believe that we could do with less than fully functional enzymatic protein sequencers and replicators, simultaneously present with the DNA that codes for them, in which the CODES ARE ALREADY PRESENT?
Probably not. But conversely, is there any reason to believe that no conceivable natural process, operating over billions of years, could have produced this or something equally complex? Personally, I find it as difficult to reject design, as I find it difficult to reject the existence of a process I’m not aware of yet, and may never be.
There's always reason to believe that given, not billions of years, but maybe 10^300 years, we might see a little something, if only we knew that it was EVEN FEASIBLE to construct a proto-self-replicator from simpler precursors by just waiting around that long. You better bring a book or two. That's the thing here, the numbers we're dealing with are not in the billions, or in the billions of billions of billions. They're well off into the category of INCONCEIVABLY LARGE NUMBERS for which there are no names, nor any picture you could draw. So to just conclude that "wow, billions of years is, like, a lot, so I'm sure just about anything could happen," is just not reasonable given what we know about the ASTOUNDINGLY SOPHISTICATED composition of a single cell. And appealing to processes we have yet to discover is likely to make the problem more difficult, not simpler. Given the track record, every new discovery adds to the list of problems that need to be overcome for a viable OOL scenario. Not to mention, appealing to "unknown processes" to avoid inferring design is transparently self-deceptive, if not just plain deceptive.material.infantacy
August 4, 2011
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After each outcome, the next outcome in the biological world cannot be predicted. There is no organism that is incomplete, halfway between A and B. Every organism is complete and successful if it survives, no matter what comes next. If evolution is a drunkard’s walk without a destination, then no particular place the drunk passes through is a “goal”, and the path he took to get there is byzantine, astoundingly inefficient, stupefyingly improbable. Yet the PROCESS is simple – a drunk staggering around mindlessly.
Well put. If follows that your card analogy has nothing whatsoever to do with evolution. Yet you think it does. Why? Because the drunk falls down a set of stairs and that's where he finds himself, that does not increase his chances of swimming the Atlantic. Throw as many drunks as you like at the problem.Mung
August 4, 2011
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I'd also like to add that admitting the astonishing similarity between DNA and machine code doesn't much help your case. You can explain the operation of a computer system in entirely physical terms without any regard for Intelligent Design. However you get into real trouble when you try to explain its origin in those same terms.material.infantacy
August 4, 2011
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David Gibson, nobody expects you to answer every objection at lightning fast pace, so take your time. We would ask that you at least consider them. I recommend focusing primarily on vjtorley's responses, since it's his OP; and it's really tough for any of us kids to rival his knowledge or reasoning. There's a fundamental problem with chance and necessity though, and that's neither can be invoked as a cause for living systems, based on what we know about either one. The possibility that nature could eventually arrive at a solution can never be ruled out, so appealing to what could possibly happen, in that the probability is not zero, seems inappropriate, when we have an empirically vindicated causal "mechanism" that would better account for it. Take it easy, this thread's likely to go on for days. m.i.material.infantacy
August 4, 2011
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Hard to keep up here, but I'll do my best. Mung:
How do we decide what LOOKS like a natural process and what DOES NOT look like a natural process?
You have asked a very central question here. Some things look designed by aren't (false positive), while other things look natural but are designed (false negative). Is there any FOOLPROOF way to make such determinations, eliminating ALL false positives and negatives? Hopefully, whatever method we use will produce the same results no matter who is doing the classification. And this is probably important. Even archaeologists are frequently unable to say definitely whether or not something was a tool. We could adopt the policy position that EVERYTHING is designed, of course. But such a position can render useful discriminations impossible. Upright Biped:
Mr Gibson, perhaps you would be better off not telling yourself how card tricks can do what has to be done, and try a little harder to observe the actual evidence itself.
This is an excellent recommendation in principle, but beyond my competence in practice. You are like the convention of mice deciding that the cat needs to wear a bell. Now, how does one implement this policy? Certainly I am not a biologist, not even close. So I see the vast majority of the world's biologists largely in agreement. Should I agree with them? If not, on what basis? Not on the merits - I'm not qualified to judge the merits. I admit I find it difficult to accept that many thousands or tens of thousands of highly intelligent and educated people have devoted their life to real-world experimental research, producing a cumulative body of knowledge for well over a centurhy, and nearly ALL of them have missed the boat. And not just missed it, but COMPLETELY, TOTALLY missed it. Not even in the same time zone! For me, this is beyond my suspension of disbelief. Now, let's take this a step further and note that those who disagree, besides being a very tiny minority, do almost no research at all. And the one or two who DO research, seem to be trying to demonstrate that claims nobody has made are without merit. This doesn't mean they're wrong, of course. But to me it means one must look at the usefulness of the research results, to see if applications based on it work. If I had the research money, I could shoot a bullet into the air, discover where it came down, and calculate the odds of it coming down in that precise location and nowhere else. And I could show that the odds were unacceptably low to the point of near-impossibility, without even breathing hard. So have I proved that bullets fired into the air DO NOT fall to earth? Have I proved that the research bullet performed a miracle? Most cogently, if I started out to 'prove' that bullets don't land, would my experimental methodology reflect confirmation bias? If I shouldn't be looking at the probability of landing exactly there, what SHOULD I be loking at? Might you suspect that my entire research program was created from the ground up to grind an Axe. Mung:
And this is how you imagine evolution to work? Puhleeze.
In some important ways, yes, that does reflect my understanding. I've tried to explain my understanding as clearly as I can. I may be all wrong, but "puhleeze", as a counter-argument, is hard for me to extract anything helpful out of. All I know is that you disagree with my understanding, but I am no wiser as to why, or how to improve it.
You can show me how a targeted search thru a deck of card can give me a royal flush. Now, you show us how incremental adaptation and selection can create a novel cell type, tissue type, organ or body plan.
And if I can't do it, do you seriously conclude it can't be done? I also showed how a NON-targeted NON-search through a deck of cards could produce an IMPROVED hand. Even if the improvement is along entirely different lines. I think you underestimate how creative complex adaptive processes can become given enough time. I think you expect every experiment to be a breakthrough, and don't allow for the situation where 99% of your trials can be errors, and you STILL come out ahead simply by keeping the few successes.
Is there any reason to believe that we could do with less than fully functional enzymatic protein sequencers and replicators, simultaneously present with the DNA that codes for them, in which the CODES ARE ALREADY PRESENT?
Probably not. But conversely, is there any reason to believe that no conceivable natural process, operating over billions of years, could have produced this or something equally complex? Personally, I find it as difficult to reject design, as I find it difficult to reject the existence of a process I'm not aware of yet, and may never be.
So while we have removed one card, and while it is in fact the case that there is 0 probability that we’ll draw that same card again, A: How is evolution like that?
It isn't. The only point of the card analogy was the retention of helpful results, so that every iteration is not starting from scratch.
B. How does it change the fact that now the odds for getting the next card we need is 4 out of 51?
Because you have already selected a target! The next card may be one of the 51 unhelpful for THAT target, but not necessarily unhelpful for ANY useful target. And hopefully we understand that each generation IS the target. If it works, we're there. If something new works next generation, no matter how differently it works, so long as it WORKS we are "there" again, except it's somewhere else.
So if this is how evolution works, after each outcome the next outcome is even less probable, that’s pretty much backwards from the way it’s taught.
So your understanding of the analogy pushes it beyond the intent. The intent was only to show that unlikely or complex outcomes can arise from simple processes, PROVIDED useful results are retained with each iteration.
Time to find a different analogy. This one shows the exact opposite of what you wanted it to show, lol.
I have tried to create an analogy that illustrates one simple principle. It was not intended to BE evolution, only to illustrate the amazing power of retention of results. I wonder that you find it so difficult to understand this, or that you seem so compelled to misunderstand. After each outcome, the next outcome in the biological world cannot be predicted. There is no organism that is incomplete, halfway between A and B. Every organism is complete and successful if it survives, no matter what comes next. If evolution is a drunkard's walk without a destination, then no particular place the drunk passes through is a "goal", and the path he took to get there is byzantine, astoundingly inefficient, stupefyingly improbable. Yet the PROCESS is simple - a drunk staggering around mindlessly. mike1962:
Really? Try counting from one to 10. Congratulations, you are a computer! Try following any list of instructions. Congratulations, you are a computer!
Or more accurately, you are capable of doing something a computer is doing as well. And if you prevent a door from closing, you are a doorstop! The original complaint was that at some point, the analogy between computer code and DNA breaks down, as any analogy does. Nonetheless, I'd say its pretty accurate to compare DNA to computer instructions, in the sense that we can manipulate both with analogous means. I have no difficulty imagining myself as running the biological equivalent of machine code (I'm a retired firmware programmer). NOT a high level code, DNA is not even slightly abstract. But machine code actually IS what the CPU does - each bit represents a state change. The analogy to DNA is very close.David W. Gibson
August 4, 2011
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David W. Gibson, I don't mind people suggesting alternative pathways for the origin of proteins or DNA. But if they want their proposals to be taken seriously at a scientific level, then they have to be quantifiable and falsifiable. One of the reasons why I like Intelligent Design is that it is both. Now let's go back to your example.
I envision a global laboratory, performing billions of experiments simultaneously. AND I envision each successful experiment being widely adopted extremely rapidly. So if each experiment takes one minute, and there are 10 billion experiments going on at once, and the probability of some useful accident is one in a billion, then we have ten useful results per minute but the useful results are retained, all else is discarded... Let’s say life takes a billion separate required factors before we’d consider it life at all. According to my above speculations, we’re getting ten of those factors adopted per minute. At that rate, life would take 100 million minutes. Which is something less than 200 years!
Given the numbers you assume, then I'd certainly agree that the origin of life is inevitable, in a fairly short time. The problem with your scenario is that if Dr. Axe's calculations are correct, then the probability of a useful accident is 10^-77, not one in a billion. I think you'll agree that that puts a dampener on things. You have also proposed that proteins might have been built by an iterative process. The real problem here is that functions do not come in halves or tenths; a molecule either has one or it doesn't.vjtorley
August 4, 2011
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xpmaterial.infantacy
August 4, 2011
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David W. Gibson:
So I compared this with a card player. Each card that you draw, changes both your probabilities, and even your strategy. And the NEXT card will change them again.
So back to our original example. First card drawn at random, 20 cards can be the start of a royal flush. Approx 3:2 against but we'll be generous and give you this one and say you get a needed card on the first draw. Now that we have our first card, there are only four cards left which can complete it. So while we have removed one card, and while it is in fact the case that there is 0 probability that we'll draw that same card again, A: How is evolution like that? B. How does it change the fact that now the odds for getting the next card we need is 4 out of 51? IOW, you claim it changes the odds in your favor, but how? You've just reduced your options to 4. So if this is how evolution works, after each outcome the next outcome is even less probable, that's pretty much backwards from the way it's taught. Once you've drawn your second card, now your odds are reduced to 3 in 50. Not looking good for evolution! Time to find a different analogy. This one shows the exact opposite of what you wanted it to show, lol.Mung
August 4, 2011
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I'm afraid the fault is all mine for the mal entry.mike1962
August 4, 2011
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Blame it on your robot slave. xpmaterial.infantacy
August 4, 2011
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EDIT EDIT: ^^ "Or I should say, we're not MERELY computers." Why is there no edit feature here for typing slobs like me?mike1962
August 4, 2011
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EDIT: ^^ "Or I should say, we’re not computers."mike1962
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