As in, the Santorum Amendment to the No Child Left Behind Act. Here.
The former Pennsylvania Senator won most major demographics in both states, each of which was laden with very conservative voters. In ‘Bama, Santorum carried women (Gingrich won men), every age group except seniors (who broke for Romney), independents, Tea Party supporters, evangelicals (who comprised 3/4 of the electorate), and those voters who said they were looking to back a “true conservative.” The exit poll results in Mississippi were nearly indistinguishable from its Eastern neighbor, almost to an uncanny degree. What makes Santorum’s dual victories so head-turning is the fact that he substantially out-performed public polling in both states. . In Alabama, only one poll showed Santorum leading during the entire month of March; in Mississippi, he led in…zero March polls. Yet he won both. Early exit polling from CNN indicated that Mitt Romney was positioned to narrowly win in Mississippi, but he ended up slipping to a very close third place in both states.
And the meat grinder hasn’t even warmed up yet.
The gen is that hopeful Romney will end up winning anyway, but note that Santorum “substantially out-performed public polling in both states.” This could be a sort of reverse Bradley Effect – having been told repeatedly how awful it would be to vote for Ms. X, people inform pollsters that they won’t do any such thing. Once out of sight in the booth, however …
(Note: The original Bradley effect ran in the opposite direction; people claimed they would vote for black politicians but then evidently didn’t. The take home message for commentators is, making a candidate out to be either God or the devil can backfire badly.)
See also: ID friendly US prez hopeful Rick Santorum wins Kansas