Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

It’s official: there are no ring species

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Readers who were taught about ring species as evidence for evolution in high school are due for a surprise: it now appears that there aren’t any, after all. There were only a few alleged cases to begin with, but now, they’ve all been discredited. The last “good example” of a ring species has just been struck off the list, in a new paper by Miguel Alcaide et al. in Nature

“What’s a ring species?” I hear some of you ask. In a recent post titled, There are no ring species, which is well worth reading, evolutionary biologist Jerry Coyne describes the process whereby ring species supposedly originate:

It works like this: a species expands its range and encounters a roughly round geographic barrier like a valley, the Arctic ice cap, or an uninhabitable plateau. It divides and spreads around the edges of the barrier, so that its range becomes circular as it expands. And as the range begins to form a circle, the populations within it begin to become genetically different as they respond to local selection pressures. But the circle is never interrupted, so while each part of the expanding species becomes genetically different, it still exchanges genes with adjacent populations.

What this causes is a group of populations in which adjacent areas are genetically similar, but become less similar as they become more distant. That’s because the more-distant populations supposedly experience more – different environments, and gene flow between distant populations is attenuated because genes have to flow through all the intervening populations.

At the end, the populations have expanded so far that the ring has “closed”: the species has completely encircled the barrier and the two most genetically diverged populations contact each other. If they are so genetically diverged that they cannot form fertile hybrids, they then appear to be two biological species.

Wikipedia provides a handy definition of a ring species and how it allegedly provides evidence for evolution in its article on ring species:

In biology, a ring species is a connected series of neighbouring populations, each of which can interbreed with closely sited related populations, but for which there exist at least two “end” populations in the series, which are too distantly related to interbreed, though there is a potential gene flow between each “linked” population. Such non-breeding, though genetically connected, “end” populations may co-exist in the same region thus closing a “ring”…

Ring species provide important evidence of evolution in that they illustrate what happens over time as populations genetically diverge, and are special because they represent in living populations what normally happens over time between long deceased ancestor populations and living populations, in which the intermediates have become extinct…

Formally, interfertility (ability to interbreed) is not a transitive relation – if A can breed with B, and B can breed with C, it does not follow that A can breed with C…

Ring species also present an interesting case of the species problem, for those who seek to divide the living world into discrete species… The problem… is whether to quantify the whole ring as a single species (despite the fact that not all individuals can interbreed) or to classify each population as a distinct species (despite the fact that it can interbreed with its near neighbours). Ring species illustrate that the species concept is not as clear-cut as it is often thought to be.

There were only a few cases of ring species in Nature to begin with, but as Jerry Coyne acknowledges in his latest post, the last one has now been debunked:

A while back, when I said in the comments of an evolution post that there were no good “ring species,” a few readers asked me what I meant by that. “What about the salamander Ensatina eschscholtzii? Or seagulls in the genus Larus? Aren’t those good ring species?” My answer was that those had been shown not to be ring species in the classic sense, but there was still one species that might be a candidate: the greenish warbler Phylloscopus trochiloides around the Tibetan Plateau.

But now that one, too, has been struck off the list of ring species, leaving no good cases.

The greenish warbler. Image courtesy of Wikipedia.

The problem with all these alleged instances of “ring species” in Nature is that the formation of these “rings” involved sporadic episodes of geographic isolation between populations, rather than the continuous gene flow involved in making a ring species. That doesn’t matter much for Coyne, because the latest findings still illustrate “how geographic isolation by distance can promote reproductive isolation and speciation.” Coyne is saddened but not dismayed by the discovery that there are no true “ring species” in Nature:

It’s no great loss, though, that we lack good examples, for ring species didn’t really demonstrate any new evolutionary principles. They showed something we already knew — that reproductive isolation is promoted by anything that reduces gene flow between populations. But they showed it in a cool and novel way.

Another textbook icon goes the way of the dodo. How many of my readers remember the herring gull (illustrated at top, courtesy of Wikipedia) from high school? Comments are welcome.

Comments
Querius :) Yes the “Ascent of Man” [sic] using just discredited transition species would look a lot different. Just the Nebraska Man, (a transitional built from a single tooth, which was later found to be a pig's tooth), would throw the whole sequence into disarray. But then again, there may be more to the man from pig hypothesis than meets the eye: :)
Human hybrids: a closer look at the theory and evidence - July 25, 2013 Excerpt: There was considerable fallout, both positive and negative, from our first story covering the radical pig-chimp hybrid theory put forth by Dr. Eugene McCarthy,,,By and large, those coming out against the theory had surprisingly little science to offer in their sometimes personal attacks against McCarthy. ,,,Under the alternative hypothesis (humans are not pig-chimp hybrids), the assumption is that humans and chimpanzees are equally distant from pigs. You would therefore expect chimp traits not seen in humans to be present in pigs at about the same rate as are human traits not found in chimps. However, when he searched the literature for traits that distinguish humans and chimps, and compiled a lengthy list of such traits, he found that it was always humans who were similar to pigs with respect to these traits. This finding is inconsistent with the possibility that humans are not pig-chimp hybrids, that is, it rejects that hypothesis.,,, http://phys.org/news/2013-07-human-hybrids-closer-theory-evidence.html
Something tells me that Darwinists will be very slow to change their drawings to accommodate the new evidence! :)bornagain77
July 24, 2014
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bornagain77, Someone should make an "Ascent of Man" [sic] using just discredited transition species. You know, like Nebraska Man and so on. Of course we're assured that all extent species are transitional and we need just need to wait 10 million years, or look at some of the fossils waiting to be discovered to prove evolution. The second coming of Darwin is just a discovery away! Don't worry, though. In the meantime, one can always depend on "living fossils" for proof of evolution. Somehow. ;-) -QQuerius
July 24, 2014
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Darwinians have long looked for missing links between sea animals and land animals to fulfill one of the major predictions of Darwinism. Neil Shubin went on an expedition to an area where he thought it might be likely to find such a fossil and miraculously discovered Tiktaalik which seemed a perfect fit for the prediction. That does count as a confirmation of the prediction, although with more evidence, it has now become an extremely weak one, counting for little if anything now. Why? For several reasons. 1) Many researchers have pointed out that the Tiktaalik has numerous aspects in common with fish. It's pelvis is also fishy, and this is crucial. Neil Shubin himself (the discoverer of Tiktaalik who wrote the book 'Your Inner Fish), has now admitted that Tiktaalik has a fish pelvis (and all other features are fishy) and does not not have a sacral rib connecting the pelvic girdle to the vertebral column (which is crucial to enable tetrapods to walk and bear their weight on land). Shubin tries to finagle some way that Tiktaalik could walk on land using a totally fishy pelvis, but the reality is that Tiktaalik was and always will be a fish that cannot walk based on all the objective scientific evidence we have, unless Darwin's ghost has somehow made it possible for tetrapods without sacral bones to magically walk now. Tiktaalik has now joined the ranks of many debunked Darwinian fossils that litter the history of Darwinism. It's just a fish people, a unique fish designed by its Creator, but nothing more. It provides no support for Darwinism. http://creation.com/tiktaalik-pelvisbornagain77
July 24, 2014
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wd400 seeing that supposed transitional fossils are few and far between (and argumentative),
Missing Transitional Fossils in the Hominid Fossil Record - Casey Luskin - Sept. 12, 2012 - podcast Description: On this episode of ID the Future, listen to a short segment of a recent presentation Casey Luskin gave on the hominid fossil record. While popular media often reports that the fossil record is complete and conclusive, the technical scientific literature reveals this to be false. In actuality, human-like fossils and ape-like fossil are clearly distinct from one another, and the so-called transitional fossil record is highly fragmented. http://intelligentdesign.podomatic.com/entry/2012-09-12T17_53_42-07_00
And seeing that the overwhelming characteristic of the overall fossil record is one of 'top down' sudden appearance and then overall stasis,,,
“Darwin had a lot of trouble with the fossil record because if you look at the record of phyla in the rocks as fossils why when they first appear we already see them all. The phyla are fully formed. It’s as if the phyla were created first and they were modified into classes and we see that the number of classes peak later than the number of phyla and the number of orders peak later than that. So it’s kind of a top down succession, you start with this basic body plans, the phyla, and you diversify them into classes, the major sub-divisions of the phyla, and these into orders and so on. So the fossil record is kind of backwards from what you would expect from in that sense from what you would expect from Darwin’s ideas." James W. Valentine - as quoted from "On the Origin of Phyla: Interviews with James W. Valentine" Scientific study turns understanding about evolution on its head - July 30, 2013 Excerpt: evolutionary biologists,,, looked at nearly one hundred fossil groups to test the notion that it takes groups of animals many millions of years to reach their maximum diversity of form. Contrary to popular belief, not all animal groups continued to evolve fundamentally new morphologies through time. The majority actually achieved their greatest diversity of form (disparity) relatively early in their histories. ,,,Dr Matthew Wills said: "This pattern, known as 'early high disparity', turns the traditional V-shaped cone model of evolution on its head. What is equally surprising in our findings is that groups of animals are likely to show early-high disparity regardless of when they originated over the last half a billion years. This isn't a phenomenon particularly associated with the first radiation of animals (in the Cambrian Explosion), or periods in the immediate wake of mass extinctions.",,, Author Martin Hughes, continued: "Our work implies that there must be constraints on the range of forms within animal groups, and that these limits are often hit relatively early on. Co-author Dr Sylvain Gerber, added: "A key question now is what prevents groups from generating fundamentally new forms later on in their evolution.,,, http://phys.org/news/2013-07-scientific-evolution.html “The point emerges that if we examine the fossil record in detail, whether at the level of orders or of species, we find’ over and over again’ not gradual evolution, but the sudden explosion of one group at the expense of another.” Paleontologist, Derek V. Ager (Department of Geology & Oceanography, University College, Swansea, UK) “It is a feature of the known fossil record that most taxa appear abruptly. They are not, as a rule, led up to by a sequence of almost imperceptibly changing forerunners such as Darwin believed should be usual in evolution…This phenomenon becomes more universal and more intense as the hierarchy of categories is ascended. Gaps among known species are sporadic and often small. Gaps among known orders, classes and phyla are systematic and almost always large.” G.G.Simpson – one of the most influential American Paleontologist of the 20th century “Given the fact of evolution, one would expect the fossils to document a gradual steady change from ancestral forms to the descendants. But this is not what the paleontologist finds. Instead, he or she finds gaps in just about every phyletic series.” – Ernst Mayr-Professor Emeritus, Museum of Comparative Zoology at Harvard University “What is missing are the many intermediate forms hypothesized by Darwin, and the continual divergence of major lineages into the morphospace between distinct adaptive types.” Robert L Carroll (born 1938) – vertebrate paleontologist who specialises in Paleozoic and Mesozoic amphibians “In virtually all cases a new taxon appears for the first time in the fossil record with most definitive features already present, and practically no known stem-group forms.” Fossils and Evolution, TS Kemp – Curator of Zoological Collections, Oxford University, Oxford Uni Press, p246, 1999
,,, wd400, seeing that there is room to doubt that the fossil record is as robust as you seem to believe it is, perhaps you could bolster your case by demonstrating the Darwinian mechanism for us? “The central question of the Chicago conference was whether the mechanisms underlying microevolution can be extrapolated to explain the phenomena of macroevolution. At the risk of doing violence to the position of some people at the meeting, the answer can be given as a clear, No.” Roger Lewin - Historic Chicago 'Macroevolution' conference of 1980 "Evolutionary Theory Under Fire" Science, vol. 210, 21 November, p. 883 http://www.pathlights.com/ce_encyclopedia/Encyclopedia/20hist12.htm "Perhaps the most obvious challenge is to demonstrate evolution empirically. There are, arguably, some 2 to 10 million species on earth. The fossil record shows that most species survive somewhere between 3 and 5 million years. In that case, we ought to be seeing small but significant numbers of originations (new species) .. every decade." Keith Stewart Thomson, Professor of Biology and Dean of the Graduate School, Yale University (Nov. -Dec. American Scientist, 1997 pg. 516) Scant search for the Maker Excerpt: But where is the experimental evidence? None exists in the literature claiming that one species has been shown to evolve into another. Bacteria, the simplest form of independent life, are ideal for this kind of study, with generation times of 20 to 30 minutes, and populations achieved after 18 hours. But throughout 150 years of the science of bacteriology, there is no evidence that one species of bacteria has changed into another, in spite of the fact that populations have been exposed to potent chemical and physical mutagens and that, uniquely, bacteria possess extrachromosomal, transmissible plasmids. Since there is no evidence for species changes between the simplest forms of unicellular life, it is not surprising that there is no evidence for evolution from prokaryotic to eukaryotic cells, let alone throughout the whole array of higher multicellular organisms. - Alan H. Linton - emeritus professor of bacteriology, University of Bristol. http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/story.asp?storycode=159282bornagain77
July 24, 2014
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DavidD, Well, you'll have to provide a citation for the tsunami idea. It seems like your mixed up though, the rocks Tiitalik comes from are much much older than the oldest Beaver (or mammal or indeed amniote) fossils. I've seen the "march of progress" in a scientific journal, I think you are confusing evolutionary biology for the popular conception of evolution? In any case, if you check out the orginal you'll see many of the species are contempories of each other: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_of_Progress#mediaviewer/File:The_March_of_Progress.jpg so it can't represent a chain or the sort most people think about (and which gave us the silly term "missing link"). If you want to lay off all this religious talk and give me some clear examples of modern Africans being considered transitional to Europeans, the march of progress being used by scientists in scientific journals , or explanations as to why these transitional species are not I'd be happy to see them.wd400
July 24, 2014
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Silicone Spray on Steroids - "tiktaalik ambulocetus archeopteryx are all famous transitionals, not mysticism required." Wow, the region in the northeastern Canadian Archipelago where this thing was discovered is loaded with creatures and plant life which actually exists today. Yet they all died a sudden and instant death. Beavers and beaver dams with crocodile-like fossils , Redwood Trees, pines, larch etc were found frozen in time by what some of those researchers called a mega-tsunami. And yet we are to believe that all these creatures were descended from this mythical transitional ? It would seem to me that whatever the extinction event up there in the north killed off everything all at once. But oh no, we have fable fabricating soothsayers making up a myth about some creature in order to satisfy the approval of the Scientific Orthodoxy. Funny how all over the Earth, various mega-tsunamis scenarios are attributed for the extinction of certain ecosystems. Yet, just try connecting all the dots however and you're demonized to a secularist hell of sorts Silicone Spray on steroids - "I’ve never heard modern Africans described as transitional and the “march of progress” graphic you refer to is almost universally hated among evolutionary biologists because it doesn’t represent the evolutionary history of our species (in fact, it was nevered intended to, but that’s a longer story)." This is unbelievable. How can you lie like this ? Every year articles come out us in all manner of scientific journals with this iconic religious image and not one ideologue in your church criticizes them for using this. Even Mike White, Paleoanthropologist out of Berkeley chastised his colleagues for their use of this and manufacturing of myths for no other reason than to gain notoriety and fame as a celebrity. The only long story going on here is the deliberate dismissal of anything amiss on your side's end.DavidD
July 24, 2014
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wd400 claims, "tiktaalik ambulocetus archeopteryx are all famous transitionals" Funny thing about Darwinian claims for hard evidence of transitionals, they all seem to evaporate into thin air when scrutinized: Tiktaalik Blown "Out of the Water" by Earlier Tetrapod Fossil Footprints - January 2010 Excerpt: The tracks predate the oldest tetrapod skeletal remains by 18 Myr and, more surprisingly, the earliest elpistostegalian fishes by about 10 Myr. http://www.evolutionnews.org/2010/01/tiktaalik_blown_out_of_the_wat.html Attenborough, read your mail: Evolution is messier than TV - February 2014 - with video Excerpt: The Polish trackways establish that Tiktaalik wasn’t anywhere near the first tetrapod, so the most important information about the transition to land doesn’t even include Tiktaalik at present.,,, Some fish today routinely spend time out of the water, using a variety of mechanisms. But there is no particular reason to believe that they are on their way to becoming full time tetrapods or land dwellers. So we would need to be cautious about assuming that specific mechanisms that might be useful on land are definitive evidence of a definite, permanent move to full-time land dwelling. A friend writes to point out a modern-day examples that illustrates this, the walking shark: https://uncommondescent.com/evolution/attenborough-read-your-mail-evolution-is-messier-than-tv/ This following article has a excellent summary of the 'less than forthright' manner in which Darwinists handle anyone who dares to tell of falsifications to their paltry evidence for 'transitional' fossils: Evolutionary Biologists Are Unaware of Their Own Arguments: Reappraising Nature's Prized "Gem," Tiktaalik - Casey Luskin - September 2010 http://www.evolutionnews.org/2010/09/evolutionary_biologists_are_un038261.html Starting at the 2:50 minute mark of the following video, out of Gingerich's own mouth no less, the ambulocetus fossil is revealed 'probably not transitional' to whales. Later in the video, Rodhocetus, perhaps the most important fossil in the hypothetical whale series, is revealed as fraudulent. Whale Evolution vs. The Actual Evidence – video - fraudulent fossils revealed (notes in description) http://vimeo.com/30921402 Richard Dawkins Dumps the Fossil Record - May 18th, 2013 Excerpt: The dumping of the Archaeopteryx as a missing link between birds and reptiles by palaeontologists during the late twentieth century, however, was gaining solid support. According to Larry Martin, an American vertebrate paleontologist and curator of the Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center at the University of Kansas, the “Archaeopteryx is not ancestral of any group of modern birds.” Missing link status of the Archaeopteryx is only an illusion; a “once upon a time” story according to Henry Gee a British paleontologist and evolutionary biologist and senior editor of the prestigious journal Nature. Abandoning the Archaeopteryx as a transitional link was actually only a tip-of-the-iceberg of the larger fossil record problem for evolution. Geneticist Wolf-Ekkehard Lönnig of the Max-Planck Institute in Germany in the book entitled The Evolution of the Long-Necked Giraffe, like Dawkins, candidly points to the fact that a “gradual series of intermediates in Darwin’s sense has never existed and hence will never exist.”,, http://www.darwinthenandnow.com/2013/05/richard-dawkins-dumps-the-fossil-record/ Archaeopteryx May Have Devolved from a Flying Bird - Nov. 12, 2013 Excerpt: The idea that it was instead evolving to lose its flight and becoming flightless again, or ‘secondarily flightless’, occurred to Habib while he was calculating limb ratios and degrees of feather symmetry in Archaeopteryx, and comparing the values to those of living birds, to better understand its flying ability. In doing so, he found that the creature’s traits were surprisingly similar to those of modern flightless birds such as rails and grebes that frequently dwell on islands. http://crev.info/2013/11/archaeopteryx-may-have-devolved-from-a-flying-bird/ Archaeopteryx’s Evolutionary Humiliation Continues - July 31, 2013 http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2013/07/31/archeopteryxs-evolutionary-humuliation-continues/bornagain77
July 24, 2014
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DaviD, tiktaalik ambulocetus archeopteryx are all famous transitionals, not mysticism required. I've never heard modern Africans described as transitional and the "march of progress" graphic you refer to is almost universally hated among evolutionary biologists because it doesn't represent the evolutionary history of our species (in fact, it was nevered intended to, but that's a longer story).wd400
July 24, 2014
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Querius - "Predicting weather is considered fantasy beyond a few days — not that it isn’t commonly attempted. I predict that evolutionary explanations will always be comparable to Virga Clouds, lots of bluster and promise, but always failing to deliverDavidD
July 24, 2014
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Silicone Spray on Steroids: "I can assure you I don’t have to “play dumb” to fail to extract meaning from your posts." Sure you do, you're doing it now Silicone Spray on Steroids: "There are plenty of transitional species," Really, I've never seen one example published where mysticism wasn't incorporated into the explanation. BTW, could you explain to me why people of Negro background in Africa are always depicted as the living transitional to the modern persons of European descent ? Feel free to consult that religious icon hanging on your wall showing the March to Man. Silicone Spray on Steroids: "and I can’t imagine what Eastern religion has to do with evolution." This is easy, in any debate or argument about evolution, definition shell games on words or terms are employed as a strategy and generally borrowed from another universe or dimension. Also many of the evolutionist insistence on fact seems to draw from theological explanations from Pantheism. Doesn't get any more eastern religious than that.DavidD
July 24, 2014
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Mung, IIRC, meterologists measure their success of correctly outpredicting rain against random chance that's based on historical records. I've heard that "tomorrow's weather will be like today's" is also a pretty good method. And then some locales/seasons have far more consistent weather than others. For example, I've heard it said that in southern California, there are only two seasons: warm and summer. ;-) -QQuerius
July 24, 2014
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Querius:
Predicting weather is considered fantasy beyond a few days — not that it isn’t commonly attempted.
It's not all that difficult if you know what's normal. I'm willing to predict a few instances of "no rain tomorrow" and to wager that I will be correct.Mung
July 23, 2014
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Querius, I've never seen someone do incapable of acknowleding their own mistake, it's... extraordinary. Especially in the face all this "Darwin’s cold, dead hands off the throat of free scientific inquiry" rubbish. DavidD, I can assure you I don't have to "play dumb" to fail to extract meaning from your posts. There are plenty of transitional species, and I can't imagine what Eastern religion has to do with evolution.wd400
July 23, 2014
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WD-40 - "I’m afraid I haven’t the foggiest idea what you are on about Mung." Of course you do, why would you start playing dumb now unless to hide your lack of coherent reply ? WD-40 - "If your claim is that there is no ordinary mode then you best take that up with Querius who made the claim in the first place." I never saw where he actually made any claims. You dogmatically made a bold religious affirmation and he called you on it. Here is an example of speciation on Steroids otherwise known as variety. Same family or kind of tree, "Prunus" which is said to contain over 430 varieties. http://vpa.syr.edu/sites/default/files/downloads/Tree%20of%2040%20Fruit.jpg http://www.epicurious.com/articlesguides/chefsexperts/interviews/sam-van-aken-interview The fact is none of this need be debated. This is elementary school stuff. What we never ever get is a etched in stone example of a true honest to good authentic transitional, minus all the eastern religious mysticism thrown in to muddle definitions in we use in this Universe.DavidD
July 23, 2014
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Nope, wrong again on all counts. -QQuerius
July 22, 2014
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That seemed to be what you were claiming in 68. Which, as I said, I found hard to believe. I guess you were just plain wrong in disagreeing with him then? Or, at least, unaware of what was being said in the OP.wd400
July 22, 2014
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Really, wd400? Piotr@23 actually said
Anyway, ring species are not the ordinary mode of speciation.
With which I disagreed. And now you go on to misstate that I
then agreed with Piotr that these findings — that apparent ring species arise by the ordinary mode of speciation
I'm astonished. Or maybe you're somehow switching back and forth between the de-bunked "classic" definition and the observed definition originally advocated by Dr. Wake. I'm trying to be generous . . . -QQuerius
July 22, 2014
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Mung, Predicting weather is considered fantasy beyond a few days---not that it isn't commonly attempted. In fact, Chaos theory got its start from Edward Lorenz's weather models. IIRC, he restarted a weather simulation at a previous point only to find that it rapidly diverged from a previous simulation with the same (ever so slightly rounded) initial conditions. I think it was also Lorentz who then went on to calculate that if he were able to cover the earth with weather stations one meter apart, adding shells one meter higher out to the practical end of the atmosphere, weather prediction would be reliably extended out to perhaps a week. I recommend James Gleick's book, Chaos, to anyone who hasn't read it. Together with Kurt Godel's theorums, it pretty much dooms any mechanistic model of the universe. -QQuerius
July 22, 2014
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And don’t keep on about the now-defunct definition of a “classic” ring species... You mean the one the whole thread was about? I don't really know what the rest of your comment is about, I'm didn't say I found it hard to belive that you think drift and selection work. I find it hard to believe you said "under the bus it goes" then agreed with Piotr that these findings -- that apparent ring species arise by the ordinary mode of speciation -- was of little consequence. I think it's more likely you just didn't know much about speciation can got confused about what was being claimed in the OP.wd400
July 22, 2014
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wd400, Hard as it might be for you to believe, I have no problem with genetic drift or a natural selection dynamic that changes gene frequency to the fuzzy point of speciation. And don't keep on about the now-defunct definition of a "classic" ring species, which even Dr. Wake never advocated, which you would know had you read his quote. - No, I don't believe in a random process such as an explosion can ever result in the formation of, let's say an a complete, functioning city, much less random chemical interactions forming DNA or a functioning cell. - And, I don't believe in a smooth series of steps extrapolated from a first-degree lever to a modern automobile, much less a coacervate to a chihuahua. Maybe there's another, different natural process that shapes the genetics of organisms, but we won't find out until Science can pry Darwin's cold, dead hands off the throat of free scientific inquiry despite the near hysterical adherence by its adherents, and their academic persecution of independent researchers. If there is such a natural process, I bet ID researchers will find it before the Darwinists do. -QQuerius
July 22, 2014
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Acartia_bogart:
Is weather normal?
weather:
the state of the atmosphere at a place and time as regards heat, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc.
Is weather normal? You tell me.
Can you predict whether it will rain three weeks from Wednesday?
Enough to bet on it. Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is?Mung
July 22, 2014
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Querius (a) Well, that still requires the existence of an ordinary mode of speciation (b) I find it very hard to believe you raised the point to agree with Piotr that the that there was 'no difference between the “ordinary mode” of speciation, and that of (the current understanding) of ring species'. And, by extension, the loss of the last apparent ring species doesn't much change our theories of speciation. But perhaps you did. Mung, I think taking "Normal" to mean fitting the probability distribution Galton gave the name normal, as in ordinary, is a very special definition of the word indeed. I also don't think normal/ordinary implies predictability. We know the normal mode of earthquake on the San Andreas fault is a strike-slip, but one can't predict earthquakes.wd400
July 22, 2014
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Mung: "My problem is with the claim that something is normal but not predictable." Is weather normal? Can you predict whether it will rain three weeks from Wednesday? Are tornados and hurricanes "normal"? Can you predict where and when the next ones will occur? I find it absurd that you would think that all "normal" things are predictable.Acartia_bogart
July 22, 2014
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wd400:
I’m afraid I haven’t the foggiest idea what you are on about Mung.
I'm sure you are by no means alone in that. wd400:
If your claim is that there is no ordinary mode then you best take that up with Querius who made the claim in the first place.
My problem is with the claim that something is normal but not predictable. It's like saying that the sun normally rises in the east but we can't predict that it will. And that is the claim you've been making. I find it absurd, to be honest. wd400:
If there is some special definition of normal that would make speciation predictable then please explain.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution Nothing all that special about it, imo.Mung
July 22, 2014
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wd400,
If your claim is that there is no ordinary mode then you best take that up with Querius who made the claim in the first place.
I made the opposite claim, that there was no difference between the "ordinary mode" of speciation (to use the term Piotr@23 used), and that of (the current understanding) of ring species. Actually, it's less confusing when your arguments don't have so much "genetic drift" if you get mine. ;-) -QQuerius
July 22, 2014
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wd400, you may want to help your Darwinian buddies obfuscate this matter: An Open Letter to Kenneth Miller and PZ Myers - Michael Behe July 21, 2014 Dear Professors Miller and Myers, Talk is cheap. Let's see your numbers. In your recent post on and earlier reviews of my book The Edge of Evolution you toss out a lot of words, but no calculations. You downplay FRS Nicholas White's straightforward estimate that -- considering the number of cells per malaria patient (a trillion), times the number of ill people over the years (billions), divided by the number of independent events (fewer than ten) -- the development of chloroquine-resistance in malaria is an event of probability about 1 in 10^20 malaria-cell replications. Okay, if you don't like that, what's your estimate? Let's see your numbers.,,, ,,, If you folks think that direct, parsimonious, rather obvious route to 1 in 10^20 isn't reasonable, go ahead, calculate a different one, then tell us how much it matters, quantitatively. Posit whatever favorable or neutral mutations you want. Just make sure they're consistent with the evidence in the literature (especially the rarity of resistance, the total number of cells available, and the demonstration by Summers et al. that a minimum of two specific mutations in PfCRT is needed for chloroquine transport). Tell us about the effects of other genes, or population structures, if you think they matter much, or let us know if you disagree for some reason with a reported literature result. Or, Ken, tell us how that ARMD phenotype you like to mention affects the math. Just make sure it all works out to around 1 in 10^20, or let us know why not. Everyone is looking forward to seeing your calculations. Please keep the rhetoric to a minimum. With all best wishes (especially to Professor Myers for a speedy recovery), Mike Behe http://www.evolutionnews.org/2014/07/show_me_the_num088041.htmlbornagain77
July 22, 2014
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I'm afraid I haven't the foggiest idea what you are on about Mung. A cursory read of any text book (and in fact, a better google search) will make it clear allopatric is the most common mode of speciation, and therefor the typical, ordinary or normal mode against which to compare others. If your claim is that there is no ordinary mode then you best take that up with Querius who made the claim in the first place. If there is some special definition of normal that would make speciation predictable then please explain.wd400
July 22, 2014
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My mistake seems to be in inferring that when wd400 claimed to be able to identify "the ordinary mode of speciation" that he meant the normal mode of speciation. ordinary:
1. with no special or distinctive features; normal.
Silly me.Mung
July 21, 2014
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Google search on "ordinary mode of speciation" turns up two hits. Not surprisingly, one of them is to this thread. The other I haven't been able to track down yet, but seems to also be attributed to wd400, likewise here at UD. lmgtfyMung
July 21, 2014
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WD400 - "But not what one can conclude from the OP, which this thread is about. So your conclusion was wrong." Mung - "It’s a great theory, and a theory this “robust” can stand up to lot’s of bashing." Everyone here already knew where the conclusion train was headed before it made it's final destination. *sigh*DavidD
July 21, 2014
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