Here is a press release via phys.org. They applied “biological evolution” to the history of cars and car makers in order to predict the future of electric car technology.
It sort of makes you chuckle.
“Cars are exceptionally diverse but also have a detailed history of changes, making them a model system for investigating the evolution of technology,” Gjesfjeld said.
The team drew data from 3,575 car models made by 172 different manufacturers, noting the first and last year each was manufactured.
“This is similar to when a paleontologist first dates a particular fossil and last sees a particular fossil,” Gjesfjeld said.
And a little bit more:
Alfaro said applying an evolutionary biology approach worked so well because the automotive industry’s technological records are very similar to the paleontological fossil record.
Who would have ever thought this could be so?
“In many instances, it is superior,” he said. “We find in only a handful of cases a fossil record this complete.”
Based on the study, the researchers can project how the electric car marketplace will evolve over the next several years. Alfaro said the field now is in an early phase of rapid diversification, and although it’s likely that many more electric and hybrid models will be introduced over the next 15 to 20 years, many won’t survive for very long due to increasing competition [pav: you know: “survival of the fittest”!]. This, he said, will eventually lead to consolidation, with a small number of dominant models that will thrive.