CS Lewis said it best about our opponents.

“I’m not interested in finding out whether the real universe is more like what the Christians say than what the Materialists say. All I’m interested in is leading a good life. I’m going to choose beliefs not because I think them true but because I find them helpful.”

Andre,

You know what’s funny? Lewis mocks that viewpoint, but it could have come straight from the mouth of William J Murray, who writes things like that all the time:

As it doesn’t matter to me if my beliefs are true or not, doubt of any kind is a non-issue.

I guess you could say that I’m the ultimate pragmatist; I don’t care if my beliefs are true; I only care that they work (or at least appear to). If they stopped working, I’d believe something else. Doubt, in my system, is a non-sequitur.

**It isn’t your opponents who don’t care about the truth. It’s your fellow IDer, William J Murray.**

Box made the same mistake as you. I’ve pointed it out a couple of times, but Box is too embarrassed to reply.

]]>OT, neat new alignments discovered. Even a Multiverse can’t account for all the fine tunes of this Universe.

http://www.eso.org/public/news/eso1438/

I will be quoting liberally from Andreas Wagner’s new book

Arrival of the Fittest.

When? I honestly believe I have provided more quotes from the book than you have. Am I wrong?

]]>– Andreas Wagner

]]>CS Lewis said it best about our opponents.

“I’m not interested in finding out whether the real universe is more like what the Christians say than what the Materialists say. All I’m interested in is leading a good life. I’m going to choose beliefs not because I think them true but because I find them helpful.”

]]>– Andreas Wagner

]]>**Tamara Knight:** But I’ve never claimed anything else

That’s a lie.

You said: “Shannon is all about communication not meaning”

]]>So I don’t understand what you mean when you write,

The formula for getting number of required toss is 2*(2^N – 1), N is the number of heads, so for 500 Heads in a row you need 6.5*10^150 tosses.

Why do you have twice the number I have, and how can you make a statement about getting 500 heads without mentioning a probability – it certainly isn’t a certainty that you would get 500 heads in 6.5 x 10^150 throws. Can you explain more.

And, to Bob H:

You write.

More generally, any stochastic process on the number of heads with all heads and all tails as absorbing boundaries (i.e. once you’re in that state you can’t leave) will inevitably reach one of the absorbing states in finite time (if you have a finite number of heads, and if it’s possible to get from any state to any other).

Could you explain more. What I think you might be saying is that after you flip the 500 coins, if a coin is a head it stays a head, and you flip the other coins again In which case, eventually you would approach all heads as the limiting case. Do you mean this, or something else? And how does this relate to flipping 500 coins at once.

and to Mung: yes, absolutely, your program is extremely unlikely to show 500 heads in a row in your lifetime, or in the lifetime of the universe. And you know that.

But flipping 500 coins is not a good model for how things happen in the real world anyway. This is just an interesting discussion, to me, from a purely mathematical point of view.

]]>